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|tonym5||Posted on Dec 21 2009, 04:09 AM|
|It was not my point that it was a cause/effect. But yes you are correct in that if we continue down the path of CO2 choking our Planet it could very well turn us into Venus like planet. But if we can change that it would be great for our planet. And yes, we will have another Ice Age if the planet is allowed to go through its cyclical changes.|
|Nick Kismet||Posted on Dec 20 2009, 07:17 PM|
I was going to respond to this earlier tonym5, but I wanted to get something more authoritative to back up my position.
Depsite a really cool movie, I don't think an ice age is a very likely outcome. Much more likely is that a series of positive feedback mechanisms will cause accelerated warming and the release of methane, both from (currently) frozen arctic tundra and from frozen methane hydrates at the bottom of the ocean, all of which is more likely to turn our atmosphere into something like that found on the planet Venus--highly acidic and hot all the time.
The effect described in some accounts--the global superstorm that results from loss of the thermohaline incline in the North Atlantic--isn't likely to trigger a glacial period (science-speak for Ice Age) for the simple reason that the planet itself is too warm and will continue to be as long as there's a blanket of greenhouse gases.
That of course is just my take on it, but you might be interested in reading James Hansen's new book Storms of My Grandchildren. He addresses the ice age question and points out that human activity--specifically producing chloroflourocarbons--makes conditions leading to a glacial period extremely unlikely (science-speak for "it ain't gonna happen"). We would have to go extinct first.
To the first part of your statement however, I think the numbers are very important, but only if we make an effort to understand them without bias. Climate contrarians often accuse the scientific community as a whole of just such bias, but those accusations are analogous to a defense attorney trying to sow seeds of reasonable doubt. But what is true in the legal system is also true in the real world. Reasonable doubt may be enough to set a guilty man free, but it doesn't change the fact that he committed the crime. Similarly, the verdict in the court of public opinion won't change the reality of our condition.
|DirkPitt||Posted on Dec 15 2009, 10:42 AM|
Hey, so do I!
I especially love this one;
|Nick Kismet||Posted on Dec 15 2009, 10:19 AM|
| Actually, when it comes to matters of science, I don't trust in anectdotal accounts (or hacked emails), no matter what their provenance, but like most scientists, I do accord some degree of confidence to peer reviewed articles, and those tend to tell a different (and consistent) story. That's how science works; you develop an hypothesis, you devise a study, gather data, and then publish an article which everyone else in your field will scrutinize. Sure egos get in the way, data might get massaged to support pet theories--but the peer review system is a much better system of checks and balances than the court of public opinion.
Regardless, I suspect we'll find out who was right soon enough, since it seems very unlikely that any kind of meaningful change in behavior is in out future.
Ice free arctic summers in as little as five years? I for one would buy that crap. I think you'll find that a lot of cynical shipping companies are actually betting on it.
|DirkPitt||Posted on Dec 15 2009, 07:22 AM|
| Well, the guy does actually say the world has been cooling for that period, he didn't say warming. You can't take everything the so-called experts and authorities say as gospel. They could have an agenda to distort the facts for some reason or another. I mean, your government told you that Saddam had WMD's and that he had links to Al Qaeda and that he was connected to 911. All of which proved to be false and eventually admitted by Bush himself. And no-one can tell me that the citizens of Iraq are better off without him, tell that to the more than 800,000 dead and millions displaced. You say "cherry pick", I say "highlight". You can't deny that these emails state very clearly certain facts and personal beliefs. If Phil Jones of the CRU says the world's cooling, why don't you want to believe him? We've had mini-iceages before in the history of the world, are you suggesting the last one was the final one? And I betcha when the world came out of the last cooling period, glaciers melted etc etc.
Here's an example from Al Gore today in Copenhagen ;
Mr Gore, speaking at the Copenhagen climate change summit, stated the latest research showed that the Arctic could be completely ice-free in five years.
Now, seriously, who's gonna buy that crap?
Here's a clip that demonstrates what happens if you ask the experts questions they don't wanna hear;
|Nick Kismet||Posted on Dec 15 2009, 04:03 AM|
| You're doing exactly what Factcheck accuses the wing nuts of doing...cherry picking, taking things out of context, and acting like it somehow means more than the mountain of evidence to the contrary.
The planet has not been cooling, no matter what one email says. The body of evidence says exactly the opposite. Melting polar ice says exactly the opposite. Most of the so-called climate change skeptics say the opposite, asserting that "yes, the planet is getting warmer, but it's not being caused by humans." Only a few ideologues actually believe that the warming part of it is a hoax.
To say otherwise, to continue to perpetrate uncertainty when there really is none, is to assure the people on the Titanic that the boat can't possibly be sinking.
|DirkPitt||Posted on Dec 14 2009, 08:14 AM|
Your link mentions Phil Jones of the Climate Research Unit. Even he admits the planet has been cooling since 98. Here's one of his emails ;
From: Phil Jones <email@example.com>
To: John Christy <firstname.lastname@example.org>
Subject: This and that
Date: Tue Jul 5 15:51:55 2005
There has been some email traffic in the last few days to a week - quite
a bit really, only a small part about MSU. The main part has been one of
your House subcommittees wanting Mike Mann and others and IPCC
to respond on how they produced their reconstructions and how IPCC
produced their report.
In case you want to look at this see later in the email !
Also this load of rubbish !
This is from an Australian at BMRC (not Neville Nicholls). It began from the attached
article. What an idiot. The scientific community would come down on me in no
uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled from 1998. OK it has but it is only
7 years of data and it isn't statistically significant.
The Australian also alerted me to this blogging ! I think this is the term ! Luckily
I don't live in Australia.
|tonym5||Posted on Dec 14 2009, 12:33 AM|
|No matter what the numbers are, our planet is still warming and will eventually lead to another Ice age.|
|Nick Kismet||Posted on Dec 13 2009, 11:47 PM|
| When I first read your post Tony, I hadn't heard about Climategate, but since then I've been waiting for the general bluster to die down in order to make sense of what the facts in the matter are.
Anyone who knows me can pretty much guess how I feel about this, so I won't inflict my opinion here, but I would advise everyone to checkout this non-partisan assessment: FactCheck.org on Climategate
|Antipodean Andy||Posted on Nov 26 2009, 05:00 AM|
Completely agree with you on that, Tony. We're in the early stages of expanding on a little herb garden we have in pots on the verandah of our rental. I love gorwing vegies but I'm not very good at it.
Decent vegetables can be grown even if you don't have a garden. Give it a go! During the war, Victory gardens in the US were a big thing. A little bit of self-sufficiency can be fun.
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